TikTok’s “Guess” Trend Is Actually Psychological Manipulation Disguised as Brat Summer Fun

Introduction

If you’ve spent any time on TikTok in 2025, you’ve probably seen it: a smiling creator drops an intentionally vague teaser, the comments flood with questions, and the creator answers nothing but a single, tantalizing word — “Guess.” It’s framed as playful, part of the so-called “brat summer” aesthetic: rebellious sweetness, campy confidence, and lighthearted gatekeeping. But beneath the pastel filters and Charli XCX hooks lies a behaviorally engineered loop that turns curiosity into engagement — and engagement into profit.

This exposé takes the “Guess” trend apart. I’ll show you how a trend built on Charli XCX’s “Guess” (featuring Billie Eilish) audio hook and the brat summer aesthetic leverages well-known psychological mechanisms — the Zeigarnik Effect, variable-ratio reinforcement, social proof and parasocial bonding — to manufacture interaction. TikTok’s infrastructure makes this an especially effective tactic: the platform now has about 1.6 billion monthly active users worldwide and 136 million in the United States as of 2025, and people spend an average of 58 minutes per day on the app. TikTok’s ad tools reach roughly 1.59 billion people as of January 2025 — about 19.4% of the global population — and the platform’s advertising revenue hit an estimated $23 billion in 2024, up ~42.8% year-over-year.

Those numbers matter. When creators intentionally withhold information to stimulate comments and save-follow behavior, they’re not just having fun — they’re tapping into an attention economy optimized by ByteDance (valued near $300 billion in November 2024, with revenue growth greater than 35% in H1 2024 and a 60% increase in international business revenue) to do exactly what platforms want: increase time spent, interactions, and ad impressions.

This piece is for the digital behavior audience: researchers, designers, parents, policy wonks, marketers and creators who want to understand how “brat summer TikTok” aesthetics are being weaponized as engagement hacks. I’ll break down the mechanics, lay out the ethical stakes, map out how brands and creators are using the format, and offer practical, evidence-based takeaways so you can recognize — and resist — manipulation dressed up as playful cultural expression.

Understanding the “Guess” Trend

“Guess” emerged as a viral format in March 2025 and spread quickly across TikTok. Creators layer the trend over Charli XCX’s track (featuring Billie Eilish), which provides an earworm of familiarity and cultural cachet. The template is simple and scalable: start with a tease — a clip of a text message, a half-cut photo, a suggestive caption — invite speculation, and then answer with a single ambiguous reply: “Guess.” The comments explode, replies generate secondary loops, and algorithmic signals reward the increased engagement.

Why does this work? It taps into several interlocking cognitive and social systems:

- Curiosity and the Curiosity Gap: Humans are wired to resolve gaps in information. A partial story creates cognitive tension; the mind prefers closure. The “Guess” format deliberately creates small, solvable mysteries that viewers feel compelled to resolve — often by commenting.

- The Zeigarnik Effect: Incomplete tasks or interrupted narratives remain more salient in memory than completed ones. By withholding resolution, a creator causes the brain to hold the story in an active, intrusive state, increasing the likelihood of return visits or further engagement.

- Variable-Ratio Reinforcement: Sometimes the creator follows up with a reveal, sometimes not. This unpredictability mirrors gambling schedules and makes engagement behaviorally sticky. If you occasionally get the payoff (a juicy reveal), you’re more likely to keep commenting.

- Social Proof & Bandwagon Dynamics: High comment counts and widespread participation create social validation for joining the guessing game. If hundreds of others are weighing in, newcomers feel compelled to participate so they aren’t left out of the communal story.

- Parasocial Bonding: The format strengthens perceived intimacy. The pretense of a private detail that only “insiders” can guess creates a faux intimacy between creator and audience, heightening emotional investment.

This is not merely a theory-adjacent claim. Look at the metrics: average comments per TikTok climbed to 19 per video in 2024 from 15.65 in 2023 — a measurable increase in interactive behavior that formats like “Guess” accelerate. And the platform’s sheer scale amplifies impact: with almost 70% of teenagers using TikTok and 68% of users discovering brands via the app, manipulating curiosity isn’t an isolated trick — it’s a mass behavioral lever with commercial consequences.

Labeling “Guess” as psychological manipulation isn’t an accusation of criminal intent; it’s an observation about techniques intentionally designed or optimized to exploit predictable human cognition in pursuit of attention and monetization. The trend sits at the intersection of culture and behavioral design, and that’s where the ethical questions start.

Key Components and Analysis

Let’s break down the “Guess” trend into its core components and analyze how each functions as an engagement hack.

The Audio Anchor: Charli XCX’s “Guess” (feat. Billie Eilish)

- Why it matters: Using a popular, recognizable track creates instant association and shareability. Audio virality on TikTok is a multiplier: a catchy snippet not only makes a clip more memorable, it signals trend membership. Artists benefit from streaming spins; creators benefit from recognizable hooks; the platform benefits from longer sessions. This is cultural feedback loop territory — music and platform co-amplify each other.

The Tease Mechanism

- The step that starts the loop. Teases can be visual (blurred photos), narrative (mid-sentence captions), or semiotic (a wink, a text reaction). The essential characteristic is incompleteness: the viewer is given a hint but not the whole story. That incompleteness triggers the Zeigarnik Effect, and the brain tags the content as unresolved.

The “Guess” Reply

- The single-word answer is key. It creates a ritualized response pattern in followers: consume → speculate → comment → receive no answer. This ritual builds habit. Habit builds algorithmic value. The more habitual the behavior, the more reliable the engagement metrics become for creators and the platform.

Social Proof Layer

- Visibility of comments acts as crowd-sourced validation. High-comment posts draw more comments; that visible density performs social signaling: “This is worth noticing.” People participate to join the community and to vie for a rare recognition — a creator’s reply, a pinned comment, a duet.

Variable Reinforcement and Rarity

- Not every creator reveals the answer. Some randomly grant reveals in follow-ups, while others intentionally refuse. This intermittent reinforcement keeps the audience guessing and coming back. When revealed answers are rare, they become currency — comments that are creative or highly visible may be rewarded with a response. That reward structure fuels competition among commenters and elevates comment quality (and volume), which further boosts reach.

Platform Optimization

- TikTok’s recommendation engine rewards engagement. More comments, likes, shares and rewatches signal relevance and push a video into more For You Pages. With 1.6 billion monthly users and a daily average use of 58 minutes, even small uplifts in interaction weave into massive cumulative impressions. ByteDance’s financial metrics — a valuation near $300B (Nov 2024), rapid revenue growth and heavy ad revenues ($23B in 2024) — show there’s strong incentive to nurture formats that increase engagement.

Cultural Framing: Brat Summer Aesthetic

- “Brat summer” is an attitude of playful dominance, flirtation, and curated indifference. Packaging the trend within this aesthetic makes the refusal to answer part of the character: it’s coy rather than manipulative. That cultural gloss obscures behavioral engineering, reframing exploitation as empowerment.

Demographic Reach and Harm Potential

- The format spreads across demographics — especially younger users: almost 70% of teens use TikTok, and many discover brands via the platform (68%). The platform’s user composition (18–35-year-olds remain a core cohort, though the platform is broadening) makes the trend particularly impactful on developing social and cognitive patterns.

All these elements combine to create a low-cost, high-return engagement hack. Creators need little production value to run it; brands can scale it easily; and the platform’s reward system amplifies it. The result: an ecosystem where curiosity is a commodity, and the cost is often attention, emotional energy and a subtle conditioning of expectation.

Practical Applications

Now let’s be clear: “Guess” is not inherently evil. It’s a format with legitimate applications across storytelling, community building, and marketing. But the line between playful engagement and manipulative exploitation is thin. Here are practical ways different actors use it — and how to do it ethically.

For Creators (ethical growth) - Use “Guess” as a storytelling device, not a trap. Frame teases with clear context or future payoffs: “Guess — I’ll reveal at 6 PM” sets a boundary and respects audience time. - Be transparent if you’re using the format for promotion. If the reveal is a brand tie-in or affiliate link, disclose it. - Alternate between reveals and non-reveals. If you never reveal, you’re training a habit for habit’s sake. Use the format to reward loyal followers occasionally to reinforce genuine community rather than compulsive participation.

For Brands and Marketers (ethical engagement hacks) - Deploy “Guess” to spark interaction around user-generated content and product stories. But keep the reveal meaningful: exclusive discount codes, early access, or real behind-the-scenes content provide value, not just suspense. - Measure outcomes beyond vanity metrics. Track purchase conversion, opt-ins, and retention, not just comment counts. Avoid creating engagement that doesn’t translate to lasting customer value. - Clearly label native advertising. With 68% of users discovering new brands on TikTok, blurring entertainment and ad make manipulation easier — transparency protects brand trust.

For Researchers and Designers (studying impact) - Monitor comment density, return engagement, and sentiment. Compare conversion and mental-wellness markers between users heavily exposed to teasing formats and control groups. - Analyze the role of audio virality. Charli XCX’s track demonstrates how music accelerates spread. Study cross-media feedback loops to anticipate emergent behaviors.

For Parents and Educators (protecting young users) - Educate teens on attention economy tactics: explain why some creators withhold answers and how that affects behaviour. - Encourage deliberate consumption. Use app timers, scheduled breaks, or “no-comment” periods to reduce compulsive participation. - Discuss emotional outcomes — the frustration of unresolved curiosity and the social pressures tied to participation.

For Platform Operators and Policy Makers - Consider labeling design patterns that deliberately exploit curiosity with low-value reveals. Implement friction (e.g., reduced amplification for repeat tease-only content) while preserving legitimate uses. - Support age-appropriate protections; almost 70% of teens use TikTok and young people are especially susceptible to manipulation via intermittent reinforcement schedules.

These applications show that “Guess” can be wielded responsibly. The ethical distinction hinges on intent, transparency, and the downstream value delivered to the audience.

Challenges and Solutions

The biggest challenge: balancing creative expression and cultural trends against the predatory use of behavioral design. “Guess” sits in a gray zone — culturally acceptable, widely imitated, and algorithmically amplified. That creates problems across several domains.

Challenge 1 — Attention Exploitation at Scale - Problem: Platforms reward engagement, making it rational for creators and brands to exploit curiosity without delivering value. - Solution: Algorithmic accountability. Platforms can tweak ranking signals to penalize repetitive tease-only formats that generate lots of low-value comments but minimal retention or conversion. Implementing quality-weighted engagement metrics would help.

Challenge 2 — Youth Vulnerability - Problem: Younger users, who make up a large portion of the platform (nearly 70% of teens use TikTok), are more susceptible to compulsive loops. - Solution: Age-gated friction and educational nudges. Require creators to add context when targeting under-18 audiences and integrate educational prompts about attention economy tactics into the app’s onboarding for teens.

Challenge 3 — Commercialization Without Disclosure - Problem: Brands exploit the format but sometimes omit clear ads disclosure. - Solution: Enforce transparent labelling for paid content and incentivize creators to offer real value in reveals (discounts, meaningful info) rather than vague tease-driven attention.

Challenge 4 — Research Gaps - Problem: We lack systematic, longitudinal studies on how repeated exposure to tease/reward formats affects attention spans, anxiety, and social comparison. - Solution: Fund independent research (academia + civil society) to track mental health correlations and behavior change over time. Platforms should provide anonymized data for researchers under strict privacy safeguards.

Challenge 5 — Platform Economics - Problem: ByteDance and other platforms’ revenue models (TikTok ad revenue ≈ $23B in 2024; valuation near $300B, rapid revenue growth) create strong incentives to preserve engagement mechanisms. - Solution: Policy-level interventions and market pressure can encourage better incentive alignment. Advertisers and major brands can demand higher-quality engagement, pressuring platforms to prioritize user wellbeing over raw metrics.

Implementing these solutions will be messy and contested. But the conversation must move beyond moralizing about trends to changing the incentives that make them profitable.

Future Outlook

What happens next depends on three levers: creator behavior, platform policy, and regulatory pressure. Here’s how I see the evolution playing out.

Short-term (6–18 months) - The “Guess” format will continue to proliferate. Creators and brands will keep using it because it’s cheap, scalable and effective. Expect copycat variations (poll-based “guess,” story chains, influencer collabs) optimized for niche audiences. - Platforms will experiment with superficial friction (e.g., “Are you sure?” prompts for repeat tease-only posts) to manage abuse without enraging creators.

Medium-term (1–3 years) - Greater scrutiny will emerge. With TikTok’s metrics in the public eye (ad reach ~1.59 billion as of Jan 2025; average comments rising), researchers, journalists and regulators will pressure platforms for transparency about recommendation mechanics. - Brands focused on long-term trust will pivot toward reveal-based, value-heavy uses of “Guess” rather than endless dangling teases. Expect a two-tier content ecosystem: exploitative low-cost viral teases and premium, high-value interactive storytelling.

Long-term (3+ years) - Behavioral personalization will complicate matters. As algorithms grow more sophisticated, platforms could theoretically tailor “Guess”-style friction to individual susceptibility, from teens to older users. That would multiply harm potential. - Counterforces will grow: digital literacy initiatives, stronger consumer protection laws, and advertiser standards that measure quality of engagement, not just quantity.

A key wild card: music. The interplay between viral tracks and trend adoption means artists will increasingly be stakeholders. Charli XCX’s “Guess” collaboration shows how music can accelerate a format. Artists and labels are unlikely to cede influence quietly; they may demand co-ownership of outcomes, creating new leverage for ethical constraints.

Finally, user culture matters. Trends die when audiences become bored or outraged. If users — especially young ones — perceive “Guess” as manipulative rather than playful, the format will mutate or be abandoned. Cultural norms are slippery but potent regulators.

Conclusion

The “Guess” trend is a case study in modern attention design: small, repeatable actions compounded across millions of users produce outsized commercial returns. Packaged in brat summer aesthetics, soundtracked by Charli XCX’s earworm and amplified by TikTok’s 1.6 billion-strong network, the format turns curiosity into a commodity. Average comments per video climbed to 19 in 2024 from 15.65 in 2023, signaling a shift toward more interactive — and more manipulable — content practices. ByteDance’s massive scale and growth (a near-$300B valuation in late 2024, double-digit revenue growth) ensure that such behaviors will be found, optimized and monetized.

This is not a call to ban creativity. It’s a call to contextualize it. When designers, creators and platforms understand the mechanisms at play — Zeigarnik effects, variable-ratio reinforcement, social proof and parasocial bonding — they can choose to use them responsibly. Consumers, especially young users, should be educated about how attention is harvested so they can reclaim agency.

Actionable takeaways: creators should disclose and give value; brands should prioritize meaningful reveals over empty suspense; platforms should adjust ranking incentives and introduce protections for youth; researchers should push for data access and longitudinal studies; and users should adopt consumption controls and critical awareness.

“Guess” may look like bratty, effervescent fun, but it’s also a mirror reflecting how attention economies work in 2025. The more we name the mechanics, the better equipped we’ll be to preserve the parts of social media that enrich us — and dismantle the parts that quietly manipulate.