The TikTok “Guess” Trend Is Just Psychological Manipulation—But Make It Viral

Introduction

Hot take incoming: the TikTok “Guess” trend isn’t some cute new way to spark conversation—it’s a deliberately engineered psychological hack that tricks people into doing free labor for the algorithm. And yes, it works. Since exploding in March 2025, the “Guess” format—clips set to Charli XCX’s track “Guess” (the one featuring Billie Eilish) with creators replying to viewer questions or comments by saying only “Guess”—has become a template for attention farming. Viewers are compelled to participate; creators are rewarded with reach; advertisers salivate at the engagement numbers. That’s the lifecycle of a modern viral loop.

If you follow platform phenomena, this shouldn’t surprise you. TikTok is built on interactions: watch time, shares, saves—and one of the most potent signals of all, comments. Data shows videos with question-based captions drive a 24% higher comment rate than static captions. When you marry that stat to TikTok’s reach—estimates vary but reports indicate between 1.6 billion and 1.92 billion monthly active users (MAUs) and roughly 1.12 billion daily active users (DAUs) in early 2025—you give creators the perfect environment to weaponize speculation. Nearly 38% of TikTok users are aged 18–24, a demographic primed for participatory trends and quick to gamify interactions.

This post is a hot-take deep dive aimed at Viral Phenomena readers: we’ll unpick the psychology behind “Guess,” walk through the mechanics that make it an engagement hack, examine the economic drivers (creators earned $4.1 billion in 2024 and TikTok pulled in about $23 billion the same year), and map out practical, ethical ways to use—or resist—the trend. I’ll give you tactical takeaways for creators, brands, and platform watchers, plus a blunt forecast of where this manipulation goes next. Buckle up: it’s performative, it’s profitable, and it’s not going away quietly.

Understanding the “Guess” Trend

At root the “Guess” trend is elegant in its simplicity. A creator posts a clip, plays Charli XCX’s “Guess,” and frames their content around an unanswered prompt. Instead of revealing details, they respond (often to comments or to an implied question) with a curt “Guess.” That withholding creates a curiosity gap—the kind of unresolved cognitive itch that compels people to comment, speculate, and engage.

Psychologically, this taps into several well-documented effects. The Zeigarnik effect explains why incomplete tasks or incomplete narratives stick in the mind: when information is withheld, attention loops back to it repeatedly until closure is achieved. Add social proof—when a comment thread already contains hundreds or thousands of guesses, newcomers are far more likely to contribute—and you’ve got a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Gamification elements—implicit competition, “winner” guesses, and the thrill of being right—turn commenting into an activity that rewards attention and identity signaling.

The timing and cultural context helped. The sound choice (Charli XCX featuring Billie Eilish) synced with the broader “brat summer” cultural vibe of 2025, giving the trend both a sonic and symbolic hook. It emerged in March 2025 and persisted through late 2025, which is significant: many TikTok micro-trends last a few weeks. This one sustained because it’s not content-dependent; it’s format-dependent. That flexibility allowed creators across niches—beauty, music, lifestyle, politics—to retrofit “Guess” into their feeds.

Platform-level incentives are critical. TikTok’s algorithm rewards engagement signals: completion rates, watch time, shares, and notably comments. Videos that generate lots of comment activity are more likely to be pushed to the For You Page. With TikTok’s gargantuan user base—reports cite 1.92 billion MAUs and 1.12 billion DAUs in Q1 2025, while other tracking shows 1.6 billion MAUs and 135.79 million U.S. users—the probability of virality is amplified exponentially. Users average roughly 58 minutes per day on-platform, which creates many touchpoints for speculative formats to catch on.

There’s also an economic underpinning. TikTok creators collectively earned about $4.1 billion in 2024 through creator funds, tips, and brand deals. Brands that leverage participation-based formats see better returns: question-based, engagement-driven approaches have been shown to drive a 1.7x ROAS versus 1.2x on Instagram. And users tolerate advertising on TikTok—around 67% say ads are “entertaining” and “non-intrusive.” So the platform’s reward mechanics, audience appetite for interactive ads, and creators’ monetization motives create a fertile field for a manipulation-as-format like “Guess” to thrive.

In short: the trend works because it’s rooted in human cognitive bias, supercharged by platform mechanics, and supported by real financial incentives.

Key Components and Analysis

Let’s dissect the “Guess” trend into its core components and analyze why each piece matters.

The Audio Hook

- Why it matters: The Charli XCX “Guess” audio provides a recognizably branded cue that primes users. Sounds on TikTok carry memetic weight; they become shorthand for specific behaviors. - Effect: A consistent sound reduces viewers’ cognitive load. When they hear the song, they immediately know a format is coming and how to participate.

The Curiosity Gap

- Why it matters: Human attention is driven by unresolved narratives. - Effect: By refusing to provide answers, creators make viewers fill the gap via comments. This converts passive viewers into active participants.

Low Friction Participation

- Why it matters: Commenting requires minimal effort compared to making a duet or stitch. - Effect: Broad participation inflates comment counts quickly. Videos with question-based captions already report a 24% higher comment rate—this is the same effect magnified.

Social Proof and Herd Behavior

- Why it matters: People follow visible behavior. A comment-rich thread signals popularity and safety. - Effect: More comments beget more comments. Early momentum matters: if creators can seed dozens of guesses quickly, the algorithm amplifies the loop.

Algorithmic Incentives

- Why it matters: TikTok’s ranking favors content that generates interactions. - Effect: High-comment videos get distributed to more feeds. Engagement begets reach, and reach begets further engagement—a positive feedback loop.

Monetization Pathways

- Why it matters: Creators earn directly and indirectly from engagement—creator fund payouts, sponsorships, and higher negotiating power. - Effect: The economic incentive encourages creators to replicate the format across niches. Brands noticing improved ROAS from engagement mechanics (1.7x on TikTok vs 1.2x on IG) will adopt the tactic.

Cultural Fit

- Why it matters: The trend aligned with “brat summer” and the conspicuous personalities dominating 2025. Its tongue-in-cheek vibe fit Gen Z communication styles. - Effect: Cultural resonance accelerates adoption; the format felt less like manipulation and more like a game.

Lifecycle and Saturation

- Why it matters: Trends lose potency with overuse. - Effect: The format’s flexibility prolonged its life, but saturation will erode novelty. As audiences habituate, the commenting itch weakens.

Analysis: None of these components is novel individually. What’s novel is the packaging: a sound cue plus an intentional act of withholding, optimized to trigger comment-based engagement in an environment optimized to reward said engagement. The trend is a perfect storm of cognitive bias, cultural timing, and algorithmic reward.

A more cynical read: this is attention extraction refined. TikTok scales micro-interactions into macro effects, and the “Guess” trend is one of the clearest illustrations of how user behavior becomes currency.

Practical Applications

If you care about virality—or just want to understand how to respond to it—here are practical ways creators, brands, and platform observers can use or adapt the “Guess” format responsibly.

For Creators - Seed early comments: Before you post, ask friends or small audiences to drop guesses in the first 10–20 minutes. Early engagement boosts distribution. - Use the sound intelligently: The Charli XCX audio is part of the meme. Use it when your content suits the tone; otherwise create a unique audio cue to avoid trend fatigue. - Make it niche-specific: The format works best when the subject is ambiguous but guessable. Beauty creators can do “Guess which product gives this glow,” while music creators can do “Guess which song I sampled.” - Offer payoff occasionally: If you never reveal answers, viewers will eventually ghost the format. Reveal answers occasionally to reset trust and reward high-engagement commenters. - Combine with value: Pair the game with utility—give winners shoutouts, discounts, or exclusive content. That increases loyalty and converts engagement into revenue.

For Brands - Test question-first captions: Data shows question-based captions increase comment rates by about 24%. Use this as an A/B test versus conventional ads. - Tie to measurable outcomes: If you adopt “Guess,” track conversion funnels. TikTok has driven higher ROAS for Gen Z-targeting brands (1.7x vs Instagram’s 1.2x), but you must measure end-to-end. - Be transparent with giveaways: If you promise rewards for guesses, make redemption straightforward. Avoid misleading tactics that could damage trust or violate platform rules. - Use influencers strategically: Influencers excel at format fluency. Sponsor creators who can adapt “Guess” to their niche authentically rather than forcing brand messaging into the meme.

For Platform Watchers and Moderators - Monitor for abuse: The vagueness of the format can be weaponized to evade moderation. Use pattern detection on audio + comment spikes to flag suspicious content. - Measure engagement quality: Not all comments equal value. Distinguish between spammy one-word guesses and substantive engagement. - Educate users: Provide on-platform prompts about best practices and transparency in engagement-driven trends.

For Analysts and Journalists - Contextualize metrics: High comment volumes aren’t the same as meaningful engagement. Analyze sentiment and downstream conversions. - Track lifecycle: Trends based on manipulation have predictable decay curves—watch early momentum, geographic spread, and eventual fatigue.

Operational tips - Timing matters: Post when your niche is most active; for many creators that’s evenings in users’ local time zones. - Optimize pinned comments: Use pinned comments to shape the conversation or provide the payoff. - Avoid clickbait pitfalls: If you repeatedly withhold answers without payoff, you’ll lose trust and algorithmic momentum.

These applications are about working with the format intelligently rather than mindlessly copying it. The best creators turn manipulation into experience: a playful game that still delivers value.

Challenges and Solutions

This trend isn’t without consequences. Below are major challenges and pragmatic solutions.

Challenge: Content Moderation Complexity - Problem: The “Guess” format’s deliberate ambiguity can conceal harmful content (hate speech, misinformation) inside comments or replies. - Solution: Platforms should build detection models that flag rapid comment spikes tied to specific audio cues. Human moderation should prioritize threads where comment volume intersects with sensitive topic tags or flagged terms.

Challenge: Inflated Metrics and False Signals - Problem: Comment inflation can mislead advertisers about true interest. A 24% lift in comments does not equal a 24% lift in conversion. - Solution: Brands must track cost-per-acquisition and not just engagement APYs. Tie campaign KPIs to sales or signups and use UTM tracking to attribute results properly.

Challenge: Audience Fatigue and Backlash - Problem: Overuse of “Guess” creates fatigue. Users begin to perceive it as disingenuous manipulation. - Solution: Rotate formats. Use “Guess” sparingly and always provide value. Reward participants with exclusive content or real-world perks to maintain goodwill.

Challenge: Ethical Concerns - Problem: The format exploits cognitive biases to extract unpaid labor (comments), which raises ethical questions about consent and manipulation. - Solution: Encourage creators and brands to be transparent. If you’re using the format to increase engagement for monetary gain, disclose partnerships and offer fair value back to the community.

Challenge: Creator Sustainability - Problem: Relying solely on manipulation-based formats can create brittle growth. When trends die, creators may struggle. - Solution: Build multiple content pillars. Use “Guess” as a growth lever but invest in evergreen content that establishes expertise and deeper community ties.

Challenge: Platform-Level Incentivization - Problem: TikTok’s algorithmic bias toward interactions creates systemic incentives for manipulative formats. - Solution: Platforms should diversify engagement signals and reward content quality metrics (session retention, content originality) not just interaction volume. They can also penalize repetitive, low-value formats.

Challenge: Legal/Compliance Issues - Problem: Running contests or giveaways without clear rules can violate local laws. - Solution: Brands should consult legal teams when offering prizes. Keep rules, eligibility, and redemption transparent and compliant.

By acknowledging these challenges and applying targeted solutions, creators and platforms can preserve user trust while still benefiting from participation mechanics. The moral: manipulation isn’t the same as innovation; you can design for engagement ethically.

Future Outlook

Where does this trend go from here? Short answer: evolution, not extinction. Medium answer: fragmentation into more sophisticated formats. Long answer: an arms race between creators exploiting psychology and platforms tightening the rules.

Near-term (next 6–9 months): Fatigue will set in for the vanilla “Guess” implementation. As more creators clone the format, novelty decreases, and audience responsiveness will drop. I expect measurable decline by Q2 2026 as habituation reduces the curiosity gap’s potency. Smart creators will adapt by introducing twists—multi-step reveals, interactive polls, AR filters that validate guesses, or reward mechanics that tie guesses to microtransactions. Some will abandon the format entirely when conversion metrics falter.

Medium-term (9–18 months): The template will fossilize into a toolbox of engagement patterns. We’ll see hybrid formats that combine “Guess” with surveys, shoppable elements, or NFT-gated reveals. Advertisers who found a favorable ROAS (1.7x on TikTok vs 1.2x on Instagram) will refine attribution and decide whether participation-driven ads make business sense. Platforms may introduce friction to blunt pure manipulation—like limiting how often the same sound can appear in trending slots, or promoting signals that favor content quality.

Long-term (18+ months): Expect algorithmic countermeasures. Platforms have an incentive to improve the “signal-to-noise” ratio: inflated comment threads are less valuable to advertisers if they don’t convert. We’ll likely see evolved ranking algorithms that weight comment quality, authenticity signals (e.g., commenter history), and conversion outcomes more heavily. Regulatory scrutiny could increase too—especially around deceptive engagement tactics, disclosure of sponsored content, and protections for young users drawn into manipulative trends.

Wider implications: The “Guess” trend is a case study in how psychological insights get weaponized into product features. TikTok’s broader ecosystem—1.6–1.92 billion MAUs, average session lengths around 58 minutes, and massive ad revenue (roughly $23 billion in 2024 with 42.8% YoY growth)—creates incentives for formats that maximize interactions. The more platforms optimize to retain attention, the more incentives exist to invent manipulation-by-design formats.

Prediction: Variants will arise that feel less manipulative. The cleverest creators will combine curiosity with genuine value: teaching, humor, or novel sensory experiences (think AI ASMR). Brands that treat engagement as a conversion funnel—tracking ROAS, lowering reliance on vanity metrics, and emphasizing user value—will win. Those that don’t will be left with high comments, low conversions, and an annoyed audience.

Ultimately, the trend’s legacy will be two-fold: a short-term playbook for rapid engagement, and a longer-term lesson about the ethics of designing for attention. The next wave of viral formats will either learn to hide their extraction behind delight, or platforms will force them to be more transparent.

Conclusion

The TikTok “Guess” trend is a masterclass in modern viral engineering: simple form, psychological trigger, scalable mechanics, and economic incentives. It monetizes curiosity and social dynamics to produce the exact currency TikTok’s algorithm loves—comments. The data backs it up: question-based captions yield roughly 24% more comments; creators earned $4.1 billion in 2024; TikTok’s reach is massive (estimates between 1.6 billion and 1.92 billion MAUs, 1.12 billion DAUs), users spend about 58 minutes a day on the app, and brands can see better ROAS on TikTok (1.7x) than on Instagram (1.2x) when they lean into participation-driven formats.

But here’s the blunt hot take for Viral Phenomena readers: manipulation can be sustainable only if it’s coupled with value and ethics. If you’re a creator, use “Guess” as a playful lever, not a permanent business model. If you’re a brand, test with clear KPIs and don’t confuse comments for conversions. If you’re a platform or regulator, watch for abuse and prioritize quality signals over raw engagement.

Actionable takeaways (because you asked for them): - Seed early comments to jumpstart distribution, but reward participants occasionally with reveals or perks. - Track conversions, not just comments—use UTMs and measure ROAS to evaluate real impact. - Rotate formats and offer genuine value (education, discounts, entertainment) to avoid fatigue. - Platforms should develop comment-quality metrics and better moderation for ambiguous trends. - Be transparent: disclose when engagement mechanics are commercial or part of a sponsored campaign.

“Guess” is brilliant because it’s human. It scrapes at something we all feel: the itch to know. The ethical line is whether creators and platforms reciprocate that attention with truth, value, or profit-sharing. Make it viral, sure—but don’t make it exploitative. If you want sustainable influence, use psychology to engage people—and then give them something worth their time.