The Psychology Behind TikTok's 'Guess' Trend: Why We Can't Stop Taking the Bait

Introduction

If you’ve spent any time on TikTok in 2025, you’ve probably been low-key roped into a “Guess” thread. The trend—stemming from Charli XCX’s song “Guess” (featuring Billie Eilish)—is deceptively simple: creators open with an intriguing hint or setup, invite curiosity, and then respond to follow-up questions with a single word: “Guess.” The result is a comment section that explodes with participation, shares and saves. It looks casual and playful on the surface, but underneath it’s a masterclass in behavioral design and attention economics.

Why does this tiny ritual pack such a punch? Because it leverages multiple well-studied psychological drivers—curiosity gaps, social proof, intermittent reinforcement and the need for social validation—while aligning perfectly with TikTok’s algorithmic incentives. Add TikTok’s sheer scale (1.94 billion adult users globally as of August 2025) and intense daily engagement (people average 58 minutes per day on the app), and you’ve got an environment primed for micro-trends to run rampant. The “Guess” format is content minimalism that produces maximum interaction: comments skyrocket, engagement metrics look great, and the algorithm rewards the post with more reach.

This post is a trend analysis aimed at a digital behavior audience. We’ll unpack the psychology behind “Guess,” examine platform data and commercial implications (including the role of TikTok Shop and the platform’s 2025 economics), trace how the format evolved, flag risks and fatigue factors, and end with actionable takeaways for creators, brands and researchers. Whether you want to use the pattern responsibly, study it academically or simply understand why you keep typing guesses into comment boxes, this is a compact, evidence-informed guide to why “Guess” hooks us—and what comes next.

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Understanding TikTok’s “Guess” Trend

At surface level the “Guess” trend is a social game. Creators tease an unresolved story, hint at something surprising, and then purposely deny closure. This creates an information gap—a well-known psychological trigger. George Loewenstein’s information gap theory describes how curiosity arises when people perceive a gap between what they know and what they want to know; the “Guess” format exploits that gap with surgical precision. Instead of resolving the gap, creators hand it off to the audience by prompting guesses. That transfer increases the audience’s mental investment: you’re no longer a passive viewer, you’re a participant.

Important platform context amplifies that mental investment:

- Scale and reach: TikTok reported 1.94 billion adult users globally as of August 2025, with the U.S. market over 135 million users. With nearly 2.2 billion monthly visits as of May 2025 and an average of 7.2 pages per visit, the platform’s structure creates repeated exposure opportunities for trends to catch on. - Time spent: Users spend an average of 58 minutes per day on TikTok. That’s almost an hour of attention every day—plenty of opportunity for iterative, low-effort formats like “Guess” to recur and compound. - Demographics: One in four TikTok users are under 25, and the 18–35 cohort is the largest segment. The majority of active creators are aged 18–24. This younger skew favors formats that reward quick, social play and peer validation. - Economics: In 2025 TikTok generated approximately $25 billion in revenue (about 30% year-over-year growth since 2023), with advertising contributing roughly 70% of that total. TikTok Shop continues to scale, posting a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of about $30 billion in 2025. U.S. users reportedly spend roughly $1,200 per year on TikTok shopping. High engagement formats translate directly into monetization opportunities—more comments and longer watch times make content more valuable to advertisers and merchants.

You can think of “Guess” as a short-cycle engagement hack optimized for modern feed mechanics. It creates a virtuous loop: curiosity generates comments, comments signal value to the algorithm, the algorithm amplifies reach, reach multiplies the number of guesses, and the cycle repeats. Importantly, the format requires minimal production overhead. No expensive filming, no complex editing—just a strong hook and a social nudge.

Recent origin and spread: the trend traces back to Charli XCX’s “Guess (ft. Billie Eilish)” and began surfacing as a recognizable template around March 2025. Since then, it has diversified across categories—personal storytelling, product reveals, educational snippets, and even news commentary—because the underlying psychological mechanics are category-agnostic.

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Key Components and Analysis

Let’s break down the “Guess” trend into the components that make it work and analyze each through a behavioral lens.

The Hook (Information Gap)

- What it is: A brief, intriguing setup that creates unanswered questions. - Why it works: The curiosity (information gap) makes viewers mentally simulate outcomes. People prefer to close gaps; in the absence of closure, they act (i.e., comment).

The Denial (Saying “Guess”)

- What it is: Instead of answering, creators deny closure and invite guesses. - Why it works: Denial turns passive curiosity into active participation. It switches the reward from knowledge acquisition to social play—guessing becomes the activity, and social interaction becomes the reward.

Social Proof + Herd Dynamics

- What it is: As comments pile up, people mimic or one-up previous guesses. - Why it works: Social proof increases participation; seeing others guess signals that participating is normative and rewarding. For creators, high comment volume is a success metric; for viewers, it’s a cue that the content is interesting.

Intermittent Reinforcement

- What it is: Some creators eventually reveal answers in follow-ups, but not always. - Why it works: Variable payoff schedules—sometimes you get the answer, sometimes you don’t—are highly reinforcing (akin to slot machines). This unpredictability heightens return visits and repeated behavior.

Algorithmic Feedback Loop

- What it is: TikTok’s recommendation system prioritizes content with high engagement metrics. - Why it works: The more comments (and longer watch time) a video gets, the likelier it shows up in more feeds, increasing the expected number of participants. The platform’s dynamics reward formats that generate micro-interactions.

Low Production, High Return

- What it is: Minimal effort to produce high-engagement content. - Why it works: Low barriers enable rapid iteration across millions of creators. The faster a format is repeatable, the more rapidly it scales.

Cultural Resonance & Music Tie-in

- What it is: Musical backing from Charli XCX’s track provides a recognizable sonic cue. - Why it works: Music helps package the format into a replicable meme unit; the Charli XCX connection gave the template viral credibility early on.

Recent developments (last 30 days) - Cross-category adoption has accelerated: creators in education, fashion, and micro-influencer niches repurposed “Guess” for quizzes, outfit reveals and product teases. - Brand pilots: Small and medium DTC brands have started running “Guess” pilots to pre-launch products in the last month, reporting (anecdotally) incremental lifts in pre-orders and newsletter signups when paired with TikTok Shop links. - Platform experimentation: Industry observers have noted that TikTok’s product roadmap increasingly favors comment-driven engagement features; subtle UI nudges that surface highly commented posts to Friends and For You feeds have been spotted by creators in the last 30 days (not an official TikTok announcement, but discernible from creator experience). - Variant formats: “Reverse-guess” mini-series (reveal first, then ask viewers to guess the path) and tiered guessing (clues across multiple videos) are becoming common, reflecting creators’ attempts to stretch engagement across multiple posts.

Expert perspectives - Analysts and behavioral researchers characterize “Guess” as a textbook exploitation of the curiosity gap and intermittent reinforcement. One industry analyst summarized the phenomenon as: “It’s small-scale gamification—no bells and whistles, just the brain’s appetite for uncertainty.” - Platform strategists note that its real power is the comment economy: comments are cheap to generate but expensive in algorithmic value.

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Practical Applications

If you’re a creator, marketer or researcher in digital behavior, the “Guess” trend offers practical lessons you can apply ethically and effectively. Below are tactical use cases and how to implement them.

For Creators - Use the hook sparingly: Reserve “Guess” for moments where the tease is genuinely intriguing. Overuse leads to comment fatigue. - Structure for follow-up: Plan a reveal or value-add in a subsequent video. Even if you don’t answer directly, provide payoff within a predictable timeframe (24–72 hours) to keep followers engaged. - Optimize CTA placement: Prompt comments with a specific angle (e.g., “Guess the city,” “Guess my major”) to seed higher-quality guesses and increase the chance of algorithmic amplification. - Mix formats: Alternate “Guess” content with substantive posts so your audience doesn’t perceive you as clickbait-heavy.

For Brands and Marketers - Product launches: Use “Guess” to build pre-launch hype—pair it with a clear conversion path (email signup, wishlist, TikTok Shop link) to capture interest. - UGC seeding: Invite customers to post their own guesses and reward selected participants with discounts or early access to create organic buzz. - A/B test pacing and reveal types: Test instant reveal vs delayed reveal and track metrics like comment volume, watch time and conversion rate (sales, signups). - Compliance and authenticity: Ensure the format delivers actual value and avoid manipulative bait-and-switch tactics that harm brand trust.

For Educators and Knowledge Creators - Learning hooks: Pose knowledge gaps as micro-quizzes. Use “Guess” to activate retrieval practice—then follow with a succinct explanation in the follow-up. - Stretch attention: Use sequential clues across multiple short videos to scaffold learning and prompt repeat visits.

Measuring impact - Engagement lift: Track comment count and quality (e.g., unique vs. repeated comments) rather than just volume. - Conversion tracking: For brands, link reveal videos to measurable outcomes such as click-through to product pages, email signups or TikTok Shop purchases—TikTok Shop GMV reached $30 billion in 2025, indicating clear retail potential when engagement translates to commerce. - Audience retention: Monitor follower growth and watch-time trends. If “Guess” posts attract one-off traffic without retention, adjust strategy.

Actionable campaign checklist - Identify the true curiosity gap (is it intriguing enough?) - Script a concise hook (5–10 seconds) - Decide on answer cadence (immediate follow-up vs delayed) - Map the conversion path (signup, Shop, website) - Measure both behavioral and commercial KPIs (comments, CTR, conversion)

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Challenges and Solutions

The “Guess” trend is powerful—but not without pitfalls. Here’s a breakdown of key challenges and practical ways to mitigate them.

Challenge: Engagement fatigue and diminishing returns - Problem: As audiences get used to a format, the psychological freshness wears off; repeated “Guess” posts can feel stale. - Solution: Reserve “Guess” for high-value teasers. Refresh the format with new twists (multi-part reveals, audience role-playing, gamified rewards). Maintain a content mix where “Guess” comprises a minority of output.

Challenge: Quality vs. quantity of engagement - Problem: High comment counts can be full of low-value spammy guesses, which the algorithm may still reward, but they don’t build meaningful audience relationships. - Solution: Prompt more specific guesses to elicit richer responses (e.g., “Guess which ingredient makes this recipe better: A, B or C?”). Reward thoughtful commenters with replies or shoutouts to signal that quality matters.

Challenge: Erosion of trust (bait-and-switch) - Problem: If creators repeatedly withhold closure or fail to provide value after soliciting guesses, followers may feel manipulated. - Solution: Commit to occasional reveals and value-based follow-up content. Be transparent about why you’re using “Guess” (for fun, for a reveal, for a prize) so the audience sees clear intent.

Challenge: Algorithmic dependency and short-term tactics - Problem: Relying only on engagement hacks reduces long-term audience equity and creative growth. - Solution: Treat “Guess” as an acquisition tool rather than a full content strategy. Use the engagement to funnel audiences to deeper content (e.g., long-form posts, newsletters, product pages) that build durable value.

Challenge: Brand safety and misapplication - Problem: For sensitive topics (health, finance, political content), teasing without context can spread misinformation or frustrate audiences. - Solution: Avoid teasing claims that require expert context. Use the format for light-hearted or clearly signposted promotional content; for serious topics, use the curiosity gap to prompt ethical discussion, not sensationalism.

Challenge: Monetization vs authenticity tug-of-war - Problem: Brands pushing “Guess” for conversion without delivering relevance risk backlash. - Solution: Integrate value-first offers (early-bird discounts, exclusive access) for those who engage; use “Guess” as an invite to join a community rather than a manipulative trick.

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Future Outlook

What happens next for the “Guess” trend and the broader mechanics it exploits? Several trajectories are possible, and they reflect broader shifts in platform design, advertiser behavior and user psychology.

Platform featureization

- Expect platforms to bake interactive elements that formalize guessing games—poll stickers tailored to multi-comment threads or “guess-to-reveal” affordances that creators can use. TikTok has increasingly rewarded comment-driven formats; specialized UI elements that reward conversational posts would be a natural evolution.

Gamification and creator tooling

- Creators and third-party tools will create templates and workflows that streamline sequential guessing campaigns and reward participation (badges, early access codes). This could professionalize the technique and make it easier for brands and creators to scale responsibly.

AI-driven personalization

- AI may begin to personalize which hooks appear to which viewers based on their curiosity profile. Imagine feed optimizations that surface “Guess” videos to users who have historically engaged in comment-based content. That raises both effectiveness and ethics questions around targeted behavioral nudging.

Diversification into micro-trend ecosystems

- As “Guess” variants proliferate, micro-communities may create sub-formats (educational guessing, nostalgic guessing, product-guessing) with distinct norms and audience expectations. This fragmentation will reward creators who specialize and build trust within niche groups.

Commercial maturation

- Brands that integrate “Guess” into sustainable marketing funnels will refine measurement frameworks that link comment volume to downstream revenue more reliably. With TikTok’s 2025 revenue at roughly $25 billion and advertising making up ~70% of that, ad buyers will continue to prize formats that deliver measurable attention—and “Guess” fits that bill when used correctly.

Regulatory and platform response

- Platforms and regulators pay attention when psychological tactics scale. If formats become associated with manipulation or harmful outcomes, expect policy or platform-level guardrails. Transparency features (e.g., labels for engagement-driven content or mandatory reveal timeframes for promotional “Guess” campaigns) could emerge.

Academic and industry research

- Expect more empirical study of micro-engagement formats. Universities and think tanks interested in digital behavior will likely publish controlled studies on the effects of intermittent reinforcement and excitement triggered by formats like “Guess,” especially within younger cohorts that dominate TikTok’s user base.

Bottom line: “Guess” is not a one-off gimmick; it’s a design pattern. As long as TikTok’s large, engaged user base (1.94 billion adults, high daily time spent) exists, variation and formalization of curiosity-driven formats are likely. The winners will be those who balance short-term engagement lifts with long-term audience value, ethical transparency and thoughtful measurement.

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Conclusion

The TikTok “Guess” trend is a small, elegant case study in modern attention dynamics. It packs together classic psychological levers—curiosity gaps, social proof, intermittent reinforcement—and aligns them with TikTok’s algorithmic architecture to produce outsized engagement for minimal production cost. Its origin in Charli XCX’s track gave it a cultural hook, but the real power comes from its simplicity: tease, deny, involve.

For creators and brands, the opportunity is real. TikTok’s 2025 metrics—1.94 billion adult users, intense average daily use, and a commerce engine that produced $30 billion GMV for TikTok Shop—mean that a well-executed “Guess” piece can move audiences and dollars. But the technique carries risks: fatigue, erosion of trust, and the danger of becoming a superficial engagement crutch. The most effective practitioners will use “Guess” sparingly, pair it with genuine value in follow-ups, and measure beyond vanity metrics to evaluate real impact.

Looking forward, anticipate formal tooling, AI personalization, and a proliferation of nuanced sub-formats that refine the psychology of curiosity into more sophisticated interactions. Whether you’re a researcher, creator or marketer, understanding the cognitive engine beneath “Guess” should inform how you design experiences on social platforms—how you invite participation, deliver value, and build relationships that last beyond the next viral loop.

Actionable takeaways (quick reference) - Use scarcity of “Guess” sparingly—don’t turn it into your entire content strategy. - Pair guesses with a predictable reveal cadence to preserve trust. - Direct comment activity toward measurable outcomes (email signups, Shop links). - Prompt high-quality responses with specific prompts, not open-ended bait. - Measure retention and conversion, not just comment counts. - Monitor audience sentiment and rotate formats to prevent fatigue.

The “Guess” trend is a reminder: the simplest social interactions—when aligned with platform mechanics and basic human psychology—can become powerful cultural forces. The challenge now is to harness that force ethically and strategically.