The TikTok “Guess” Trend Is Emotional Manipulation Disguised as Brat Summer Fun

Introduction

By mid‑2025 a deceptively playful TikTok format had become impossible to ignore: creators teasing stories, relationships, secrets or “hot takes,” then answering nothing — simply dropping a beat or the word “Guess” and watching the comment field erupt. At surface level it looks like harmless flirtation with attention: a wink, a song from Charli XCX’s Brat Summer era, and thousands of people joining the guessing game. But under the glossy veneer is a deliberate exploitation of human curiosity designed to produce predictable engagement. This exposé walks through how the “Guess” trend works, who benefits, why it matters to anyone interested in digital behavior, and what to do about it.

The trend isn’t an isolated meme. It rides TikTok’s recommendation engine and the cultural momentum around Charli XCX’s “Guess” (a collaboration that became an anthem of “Brat Summer” online). Platforms like TikTok are optimized to reward content that generates time‑on‑platform, comments, and repeated returns. In 2025 that algorithmic reward system is massive: as of August 2025 TikTok reports roughly 1.6 billion monthly active users globally and over 135 million in the United States alone. Users spend an average of 58 minutes per day on the app, and the platform’s advertising reach is estimated at about 1.59 billion people — roughly 19.4% of the world’s population. TikTok’s commercial scale matters because it turns psychological nudges into real revenue: industry reports peg TikTok’s 2025 revenue at roughly $25 billion with about 70% coming from advertising, and projections in 2025 suggested advertising revenue could approach $33.12 billion. TikTok Shop’s Gross Merchandise Value reached an estimated $30 billion in 2025, signaling how engagement increasingly converts directly into commerce.

This exposé is for the digital behavior audience: researchers, platform designers, creators, and attentive users who want to understand not just what is trending, but what it does to people. We’ll unpack the trend’s mechanics, trace the incentives that sustain it, summarize the evidence available as of August 2025, and offer concrete, practical steps to recognize and resist emotionally manipulative engagement baiting masked as “Brat Summer” fun.

Understanding the “Guess” Trend

The “Guess” format relies on a small set of regularized moves. A creator opens with an emotionally charged claim or a narrative hook — “I think my partner’s cheating,” “I dropped out to chase this dream,” “I saved someone’s life last week” — then pauses, cuts to a knowing look, and either mouths “Guess” or queues a snippet of Charli XCX’s song “Guess.” The creator does not provide an answer or resolution. Instead the comment section becomes the action space: followers speculate, pile on, ask for updates, and importantly, the creator gets a flood of comments and continued attention.

Why does that work? Two psychological principles are in play.

On top of those cognitive hooks sits TikTok’s algorithmic incentive structure. Content that generates comments and watch time is prioritized; repeated interactions create signals that the algorithm uses to keep sending similar content to other users. As of the latest industry snapshots (August 2025), TikTok processes roughly 2.2 billion monthly visits and users view, on average, 7.2 pages per visit — creating enormous exposure for any format that reliably drives interaction.

Culturally, the “Guess” trend aligns perfectly with a wider “Brat Summer” moment — a stylistic and musical wave led by Charli XCX and high‑profile collaborators that emphasizes bratty irreverence, flirtation, and staged mystery. The use of popular music conveniently provides an aesthetic frame that makes manipulative techniques feel like performance art, not tactics. Charli XCX’s song (and the broader Brat Summer aesthetic) functions as a social lubricant: it masks the mechanics of engagement baiting and makes it feel playful, consensual, and creative.

The result: creators, record labels, and the platform all benefit. Creators grow followings and monetization options. Labels and artists get streaming bumps. The platform collects engagement metrics that translate into ad revenue and ecommerce conversions. But the human cost — heightened emotional reactivity, compulsive commenting behavior, and attention patterns conditioned by intermittent reinforcement — is often invisible in the analytics.

Key Components and Analysis

To understand why the “Guess” trend is more than just a silly game, we need to dissect the actors, the incentives, and the structural mechanics.

Actors and stakeholders - Creators: Individuals and micro‑influencers who replicate the format because it reliably grows reach and comment rates. Many creators adapt the trend into multi‑part arcs that keep viewers returning. - Artists and music industry: Charli XCX and Billie Eilish’s “Guess” (and its association with Brat Summer) function as a cultural payload that increases virality. Music licensing and usage amplify the trend’s emotional pull. - Platform (ByteDance/TikTok): Algorithmic distribution amplifies high‑engagement formats. TikTok benefits directly: with an estimated advertising reach of 1.59 billion people and ad revenues forming roughly 70% of its 2025 income, the platform has commercial incentives to prioritize engaging content. - Brands and commerce: TikTok Shop’s explosive growth — GMV around $30 billion in 2025 — means engagement isn’t only about clicks and comments; it converts to purchases.

Quantitative signals (as of August 2025) - Monthly active users: ~1.6 billion globally, ~135 million in the U.S. - Average time spent: ~58 minutes per day. - Advertising reach: ~1.59 billion people (≈19.4% of global population). - Revenue scale: industry estimates for 2025 place TikTok’s revenue at approximately $25 billion; advertising coalesced into around 70% of that figure with projections pushing ad revenue toward $33.12 billion. - E‑commerce: TikTok Shop GMV at ~$30 billion in 2025. - Usage breadth: ~2.2 billion monthly visits; average pages per visit ≈7.2.

Behavioral mechanics - Curiosity gap: The initial tease creates cognitive tension. - Social proof and herd dynamics: Once comments accumulate, other users are more likely to pile on, creating momentum. - Comment farming and “engagement baiting”: Asking viewers to “Guess” is effectively an invitation to comment, which can be gamed and monetized. - Story arcs and retention: Creators who extend narratives across multiple posts increase retention metrics; platform rewards that behavior by increasing distribution.

Ethical and psychological analysis - Manipulation vs. entertainment: The key ethical hinge is intent and transparency. If creators knowingly structure content to exploit psychological vulnerabilities (curiosity gaps, variable rewards) for growth or monetization, the line between entertainment and manipulation blurs. - Vulnerable populations: Younger users — a large share of TikTok’s demographic and a cohort heavily present in the creator economy (18–24)— are more susceptible to peer pressure and social cues. Creating emotionally charged, unresolved narratives around relationships or trauma can prompt compulsive participation that feels involuntary. - Platform externalities: The algorithm doesn’t differentiate between wholesome play and exploitative baiting — it amplifies patterns that produce measurable engagement. That creates a structural incentive for more extreme or sophisticated versions of the format.

Legal and institutional context - Regulation is patchy across jurisdictions. The global nature of a 1.6 billion MAU platform complicates enforcement. Traditional content moderation frameworks struggle to classify engagement baiting as harm in a way that would trigger removal or policy penalties.

In short, the “Guess” trend is a confluence of musical zeitgeist, cognitive hooks, and algorithmic incentives. Each element alone can be benign; together they create predictable manipulation that produces attention, behavioral conditioning, and monetization.

Practical Applications

Understanding the “Guess” trend has practical implications across multiple domains. Here’s how different actors can use that understanding to act ethically, protect users, or build better systems.

For creators (ethical growth strategies) - Be transparent: If you’re using a multi‑part arc, label content as “Part 1/3” so audiences know this is a narrative, not a bait-and-switch. - Avoid emotionally exploitative hooks: Don’t leverage real trauma, accusations, or sensitive personal matters as clickbait. Use fictional or lighthearted prompts if you want mystery without harm. - Experiment with engagement alternatives: Instead of intentionally withholding information, create content that invites constructive interaction (polls, direct questions, value-added follow‑ups). - Monetize responsibly: If you convert engagement into paid offerings or promotions, disclose sponsorships and any incentive structures clearly.

For platform designers and moderators - Detect engagement baiting patterns: Build classifiers that flag content with high opening hooks and systematic withholding across creator accounts. Look for clusters of “reply later” or habitual unresolved narratives. - Adjust recommendation weighting: Reduce amplification of formats that gamify curiosity without resolution, especially when they involve sensitive topics. - Provide friction on emotionally charged triggers: For posts that reference relationships, harassment, or trauma, introduce prompts encouraging reflection and mental health resources.

For researchers and policymakers - Monitor behavioral markers: Track intermittent reinforcement signals (drop/follow‑up patterns), comment rate spikes, and retention across multi‑part arcs. - Create evidence standards: Define measurable harms (compulsive commenting, return frequency inflation, conversion rates tied to manipulative content) to guide policy. - Cross‑border coordination: Because TikTok’s audience is global (19.4% of world population reachable through ads), regulators should coordinate internationally to address emergent manipulative formats.

For parents and educators - Media literacy: Teach young people about curiosity gaps and how social platforms exploit them. Use the “Guess” trend as a case study. - Set boundaries: Encourage time limits and mindful consumption practices (e.g., batching content checks). - Promote source awareness: If an account routinely teases without resolution, explain that its goal may be growth, not authentic storytelling.

For brands and advertisers - Avoid alignment with manipulative formats: Brands should evaluate whether associating with “Guess”-style content renders them complicit in exploitative growth practices. - Favor contextual placements: Choose partnerships where audience engagement is driven by real value, not emotional baiting.

Actionable checklist (quick) - Check: Does the content create tension by withholding resolution? - Ask: Is the topic emotionally sensitive or personal? - Decide: Will a follow‑up be labeled and scheduled? - Act: If you’re a user, limit commenting impulse; if you’re a creator, disclose and avoid exploiting trauma.

Challenges and Solutions

The “Guess” trend highlights several practical and ethical challenges. Below each challenge are feasible, actionable solutions for stakeholders.

Challenge 1 — Detection difficulty Engagement baiting is subtle. It looks like creativity and often uses music, humor, and style to mask intent. Automated systems struggle to separate playful mystery from manipulative withholding.

Solutions: - Behavioral features: Use longitudinal models that detect habitual unresolved arcs — creators who regularly post teases without timely resolutions. - Hybrid moderation: Combine algorithmic flags with human review, prioritizing content involving personal claims, allegations, or built‑in suspense tied to sensitive topics. - Creator tools: Offer creators optional metadata tags (e.g., “Fictional hook,” “Story arc”) that help algorithms treat content differently.

Challenge 2 — Incentive misalignment The platform's revenue depends on engagement; anything that reliably produces comments and returns is financially attractive, creating perverse incentives.

Solutions: - Diversify engagement metrics: Incorporate richer signals into ranking algorithms that measure constructive interactions (meaningful replies, time spent on creator’s linked educational content) rather than raw comment counts. - Economic nudges: Offer creators non‑engagement growth credits or visibility for content that meets transparency and ethical standards. - Advertiser standards: Encourage brands to prefer inventory aligned with transparent creators; brand pressure can shift creator norms.

Challenge 3 — Youth vulnerability Younger users are disproportionately present on TikTok (a large share of the creator base is 18–24). Their developmental stage makes them more susceptible to social manipulation.

Solutions: - Age‑sensitive policies: Apply stricter visibility thresholds for content using emotional hooks when a sizable portion of the audience is under 18. - Educational interventions: Partner with schools and youth organizations to provide curriculum modules explaining platform mechanics and engagement baiting. - Parental controls: Strengthen features that allow guardians to limit exposure to trending formats deemed manipulative.

Challenge 4 — Measurement of harm How do you quantify the harm of an entertainment trend? Traditional moderation flags focus on explicit harms (violence, harassment, self‑harm). Psychological manipulation sits in a gray zone.

Solutions: - Define proxy metrics: Track compulsive return rates, comment automation, and emotional sentiment shifts in comment threads as proxies for manipulation. - Longitudinal studies: Fund and publish longitudinal research examining attention patterns, mood, and behavioral change related to repeated exposure to unresolved narrative formats. - Transparent reporting: Platforms should publish periodic transparency reports showing the prevalence and downstream impacts of high‑engagement formats.

Challenge 5 — Cultural camouflage When manipulative tactics link to a cultural movement (e.g., Brat Summer), they become normalized and harder to call out without appearing to attack the culture itself.

Solutions: - Cultural literacy campaigns: Frame critiques around mechanics not aesthetics. Emphasize that the song or aesthetic isn’t the problem — the structural use of curiosity gaps is. - Collaborate with artists: Encourage artists and labels to include etiquette guidance when their music becomes a template for widespread formats.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, the “Guess” trend is unlikely to disappear on its own. Instead, expect three intertwined trajectories: sophistication, entanglement with commerce, and regulatory scrutiny.

Sophistication and personalization Creators will refine narrative arcs; some will use AI‑assisted scripting to optimize hooks that yield the highest comment rates. The next step is personalized mystery: content tailored to specific user engagement histories that exploits known curiosity triggers. With platform datasets that reveal what makes you click, tease strategies can be A/B tested at scale, and algorithms can push individualized “Guess” hooks to the users most likely to respond.

Commerce and conversion TikTok Shop’s GMV of roughly $30 billion in 2025 demonstrates how easily attention becomes transactions. Expect creators to combine “Guess” formats with commerce — unresolved narratives leading to exclusive product drops, “reveal” paid content, or affiliate links. That turns psychological manipulation into direct monetization, increasing incentives to continue and optimize these tactics.

Regulatory and platform responses Public awareness and research (including longitudinal studies) will push regulators to consider new frameworks for “attention manipulation.” Countries with mature digital safety laws may begin to require transparency about growth tactics and micro‑targeted emotional nudges. Platforms may introduce subtle algorithmic de‑amplification for content classified as engagement baiting, especially where minors make up a large share of the audience.

Possible mitigations to watch - Algorithmic reweighting: Platforms may start to value “time to resolution” as a positive signal — rewarding posts that provide closure and penalizing serial baiting. - Creator accountability: Reputation systems could track content ethics, reducing visibility for accounts with repeated manipulative behavior. - Industry codes: Advertisers and labels could adopt voluntary codes against monetizing manipulative formats tied to personal or traumatic content.

Wider implications for digital behavior The “Guess” trend is a microcosm of a broader shift: platforms and creators moving from attention‑seeking tactics toward behavior‑shaping ecosystems. If unresolved narrative hooks become mainstream, users’ baseline expectation of resolution may shift — making them more easily baited by other manipulative formats (political rumors, misinformation, or fraudulent commerce). The behavioral architecture that makes “Guess” work can be repurposed for many ends; the question is whether society will accept that architecture as a neutral cost of entertainment or regulate it as a specific form of digital manipulation.

Conclusion

What began as a flirtatious social media gimmick has evolved into a revealing case study of how platform mechanics, cultural aesthetics, and human psychology can be combined into powerful — and sometimes harmful — attention economies. The “Guess” trend leverages the curiosity gap and intermittent reinforcement, the Brat Summer soundtrack as cultural camouflage, and TikTok’s algorithmic incentives to produce measurable engagement that converts into revenue. The result: millions of users conditioned to return, comment, and trade emotional energy for the thrill of a teased payoff.

This isn’t a call to ban creativity or police art. It’s a call to recognize a pattern and respond intelligently. Creators can keep playing, but they should disclose, avoid exploiting trauma, and choose sustainable growth strategies. Platforms can tune algorithms and offer better detection and transparency. Researchers and policymakers should define metrics and study long‑term effects, especially on young people. And everyday users should develop media literacy and self‑regulation habits to avoid being caught in psychological loops engineered for profit.

Actionable takeaways (recap) - For creators: label serialized content clearly, avoid exploiting sensitive topics, and prioritize transparent monetization. - For users: pause before commenting, set time limits, and be skeptical of recurring unresolved narratives. - For platforms: build detection for habitual engagement baiting, reweight ranking signals toward constructive interactions, and publish transparency metrics. - For researchers/policymakers: fund longitudinal studies, define harm proxies, and coordinate cross‑border regulatory approaches.

The Brat Summer vibe may be fun — and Charli XCX’s music may be an earworm for a generation — but the social mechanics beneath the trend deserve scrutiny. When pop culture becomes a vehicle for predictable psychological manipulation, the fun stops being purely social and starts being part of a system that harvests attention. Recognizing that difference is the first step toward healthier digital behavior.