The TikTok “Guess” Trend Is Actually Psychological Manipulation Disguised as Brat Summer Vibes

Introduction

If you’ve spent any time on TikTok in 2025, you’ve probably seen the “Guess” videos: someone starts a clip with a hint, drops a dramatic look or half-story, and then—crucially—answers every follow-up with a single word: “Guess.” It sounds playful, irreverent, and perfectly aligned with the Charli XCX–led “brat summer” aesthetic that dominated small-screen teen drama earlier this year. But beneath the chirpy exterior lies a deliberately engineered engagement hack—an exploitation of human psychology and TikTok’s algorithm that turns curiosity into currency.

This exposé pulls the curtain back on a trend that first gained traction in March 2025, using Charli XCX’s “Guess” (featuring Billie Eilish) audio as cultural camouflage. By design, it triggers information gaps, manufactures social proof, and leverages variable reward schedules to inflate comments, views, and distribution. With TikTok’s global reach—1.6 billion monthly active users and more than 1.2 billion daily active users who spend an average of 58 minutes per day on the app—the impact is massive. Platforms like TikTok are designed to reward engagement; when creators weaponize that reward system, what appears as harmless fun is actually a systematic technique for engagement hacking.

This article is written for people fascinated by viral phenomena—creators, marketers, parents, and platform watchers—who want a clear-eyed, research-backed take on what the “Guess” trend really is, why it works, who benefits, and what should change. I’ll lay out the mechanics, the psychological levers in play, the platform economics that incentivize these tactics (including TikTok’s $23 billion revenue in 2024 and ad tools that reach 1.59 billion people globally), and practical steps for individuals and institutions to respond. Think of this as your deep dive into how bratty aesthetics hide serious manipulation—and what to do about it.

Understanding the “Guess” Trend

The “Guess” trend didn’t arrive fully formed. According to platform analysis and social listening captured through 2025, it coalesced into a recognizable format around March 2025, riding the wave of Charli XCX’s “brat summer” cultural moment and the viral pull of her track “Guess” featuring Billie Eilish. As NapoleonCat’s August 1, 2025 analysis and several trend reports noted, the trend’s blueprint is deceptively simple: start with an intriguing, incomplete story; offer emotionally charged hints; and then answer direct questions with “Guess.” The result is an avalanche of comment guesses—exactly the kind of interaction TikTok’s recommendation engine loves.

Why is this more than just a playful TikTok format? Because it purposefully exploits a suite of well-documented psychological dynamics:

- Information gap theory: Humans feel a compulsion to close gaps in knowledge. When content intentionally withholds resolution, viewers are driven to comment and speculate to satisfy that urge. - Variable ratio reinforcement: Borrowed from studies of gambling and behavioral psychology, this schedule of reinforcement rewards participants unpredictably—sometimes a comment gets acknowledged, sometimes it doesn’t. That unpredictability makes people more likely to keep engaging. - Social proof and herd behavior: When dozens, then hundreds, then thousands of people comment guesses, the post signals importance. Others are drawn in by perceived popularity. - Scarcity and curiosity: Creators manufacture scarcity by presenting information as rare or exclusive. The “I won’t tell you” posture creates FOMO (fear of missing out).

TikTok’s algorithm acts as the amplifier. Platforms like TikTok treat high comment-to-view ratios and sustained engagement as indicators of content value—so a video that generates a storm of guesses gets preferential distribution. TekRevol’s April 15, 2025 industry overview described TikTok as a “trend-making machine” and detailed how AI-driven recommendation systems prioritize content that ignites engagement loops. The platform doesn’t, and practically can’t, distinguish between curiosity-driven conversation and engineered prompts designed solely to inflate engagement. The system optimizes for what keeps users on the app—period.

Combine that with scale and monetization: TikTok had 1.6 billion monthly active users globally and more than 1.2 billion daily active users as of mid-2025, with 58 minutes of average daily use (The Frank Agency, Aug 5, 2025; TekRevol, Apr 2025). The platform generated roughly $23 billion in revenue in 2024—a 42.8% year-over-year increase—and its advertising tools reach an estimated 1.59 billion people worldwide. That means engagement isn’t just ego—it directly feeds a commercial engine where views and attention translate to advertising dollars. When 68% of users discover new brands on TikTok and nearly 70% of teenagers are active on the platform (Brenton Way, Jul 7, 2025), the stakes of what gets amplified extend beyond entertainment into influence and commerce.

Put simply: the “Guess” format is an engagement hack dressed up as bratty, carefree fun. It works because it aligns with human curiosity and a recommendation system built to reward precisely that kind of user behavior.

Key Components and Analysis

Let’s dismantle the trend into its connective tissues—what it is, how it’s constructed, and why it’s so effective.

The Scripted Ambiguity

Creators begin with an intentionally incomplete narrative. It’s always the same move: present an emotional hook—cheating, an awkward encounter, a secret, a surprise—and stop before the reveal. The hint is often striking enough to spark curiosity but vague enough to force speculation. The audio choice—Charli XCX’s “Guess”—ties the content to a recognizable cultural moment, increasing shareability and signaling trend participation.

Comment Inflation Mechanism

Instead of revealing details in replies, creators answer direct questions with “Guess.” That single-word refrain is a behavioral cue to respond (i.e., comment). Comment threads then swell with hundreds or thousands of guesses. NapoleonCat’s Aug 1, 2025 write-up calls this “flooding the comment section,” and the math is straightforward: comments are a metric the algorithm uses to measure engagement intensity. More comments → more distribution → more views → more comments. The feedback loop is self-reinforcing.

Variable Ratio Reinforcement

Psychology researchers have long documented the power of an unpredictable reward schedule. Sometimes a creator will respond to one commenter’s guess with a “you’re close” or a thumbs-up; sometimes they’ll just leave it to simmer. That inconsistency is crucial—people keep participating in hopes their comment will be the one that triggers attention. It’s the same mechanism that powers slot machines and certain mobile game monetization strategies.

Manufactured Social Proof

As guess counts climb, the post gathers social proof. Onlookers assume the topic is important or scandalous because so many people are engaging. This attracts another wave of participants who want in on the conversation or fear missing out. Brenton Way’s reporting in July 2025 highlighted how creators weaponize social proof by seeding comments and encouraging friends to jump in early.

Platform Incentives and Monetization

TikTok’s algorithm doesn’t parse intent; it optimizes for engagement and watch time. TekRevol’s April 2025 analysis and The Frank Agency’s Aug 5, 2025 data show how platform economics reward viral loops. With TikTok’s ad tools reaching 1.59 billion people and the platform generating tens of billions in revenue, engagement is, economically, the product. Any tactic that reliably produces engagement becomes valuable—whether it’s a heartfelt viral dance or an engineered comment explosion.

Brand and Influencer Adoption

Brands and influencers are quick to copy formats that work. The “Guess” format is attractive because it’s low-effort to produce and high-return in metrics. According to trend coverage in mid-2025, marketers began using the format to promote product launches and sales, often without clear disclosure. This is stealth marketing: boosting metrics in ways that blur the line between organic engagement and paid promotion.

Ethical and Developmental Concerns

The trend disproportionately affects TikTok’s key demographics—young people and those in the 18–35 bracket. The Frank Agency’s August 2025 data noted 135 million U.S. users and heavy use among younger cohorts. Viral manipulation can impact mental health (constant comparison, anxiety from FOMO), distort perceptions of what content merits attention, and normalize engagement-first content creation over meaningful communication.

Analytically, the “Guess” trend is a case study in how simple behavioral triggers, combined with algorithmic reward systems and cultural signals like trending music, can be engineered to extract attention at scale. It’s not accidental virality; it’s manufactured virality.

Practical Applications

Now that we’ve exposed the mechanics, let’s talk about how different stakeholders are applying—or could apply—this knowledge. Some applications are legitimate and beneficial; others are ethically questionable or borderline exploitative.

For creators: - Growth tactic: The “Guess” format is an easy growth hack. If you want to stretch reach quickly, lean into curiosity gaps and compelling hooks. Use the audio and a clear call-to-action to comment. But be mindful: repeated use can train your audience to expect manipulation, and authenticity erosion can reduce long-term loyalty. - Community-building with caveats: Use the format to launch interactive storytelling—turn the guessing into a game with rules and clear rewards (e.g., winners get a shoutout or exclusive content). That converts engagement into meaningful community connection rather than pure metric inflation.

For brands and marketers: - Low-barrier activation: Brands can adapt the format for product launches—teaser imagery, “Guess what’s coming?”—to generate buzz. But disclosure matters. Using the format to amplify a campaign without clear ad labeling risks regulatory scrutiny and audience backlash. - Data capture and conversion: High comment volumes can be used to identify engaged users for retargeting (with consent). Use organic engagement to fuel CRM lists, giveaways, or follow-up content that converts curiosity into purchase.

For platform product teams: - Feature testing: Platforms can experiment with friction in comment-heavy formats—e.g., requiring a minor delay before posting or adding prompts that encourage meaningful replies rather than one-word guesses. - Ranking adjustments: Algorithms could weight meaningful comments (longer, substantive) more heavily than single-word responses or repeated phrases, reducing incentives for comment-farming tactics.

For parents and educators: - Media literacy lessons: The trend is a practical example to teach young people about how attention economies work. Encourage critical questioning: why did this video prompt me to comment? Who benefits from my interaction? - Limits and monitoring: Teen screen time and mental health can benefit from limits and conversations about manipulation techniques. Recognize the difference between organic participation and engineered bait.

For researchers and regulators: - Research opportunities: The trend offers a live field to study variable reinforcement at scale, social proof dynamics, and the developmental impacts of engagement-first content exposure. - Policy and disclosure: Regulators already investigate dark patterns. The FTC and other bodies that are scrutinizing manipulative UX might consider whether coordinated engagement-hacking campaigns by commercial actors require disclosure or new rules.

Applied thoughtfully, the “Guess” format can be repurposed from a blunt instrument of metric inflation into an interactive storytelling tool. The line between creative experimentation and exploitation, however, depends on intent, transparency, and respect for user agency.

Challenges and Solutions

The “Guess” trend reveals structural challenges across the ecosystem. Fixing it requires coordinated responses from platforms, creators, regulators, and audiences. Below are key challenges and practical solutions.

Challenge 1: Algorithmic Indifference to Intent TikTok’s recommendation system rewards engagement without assessing intent. Engineered comment storms and organic curiosity look the same to the machine.

Solution: - Algorithmic recalibration: Platforms should refine ranking signals to prioritize substantive interactions. Weight longer comments, follow-up conversations, and replies more heavily than single-word or repetitive inputs. - Spam and pattern detection: Improve detection of comment farms and automated orchestration. If a high share of comments are identical or posted within an abnormal cadence, lower the content’s amplification.

Challenge 2: Low Cost of Manipulation for Creators The “Guess” format is cheap to produce and scales easily, making it attractive for creators looking to grow quickly.

Solution: - Incentivize quality: Platforms can introduce features that reward quality creators—for example, badges or monetization boosts tied to content that generates meaningful discussion and retention rather than short-term comment spikes. - Education and best practices: TikTok, creator academies, and agencies should publicize ethical guidelines: explain the difference between engagement-driven formats and manipulative tactics that exploit audiences.

Challenge 3: Brand Stealth Marketing and Disclosure Evasion Brands can use the format to trick users into engaging without clear promotional disclosure.

Solution: - Stronger ad labeling rules: Regulators and platforms should require clear labeling of promotional content, even when delivered via organic-looking formats. This includes campaign-driven “Guess” videos by brands or paid creators. - Transparency enforcement: Platforms should audit and penalize repeat offenders who intentionally blur ad and organic content.

Challenge 4: Youth Vulnerability Teens are disproportionately present on TikTok and more susceptible to social proof and FOMO, making them prime targets for manipulation.

Solution: - Age-appropriate safeguards: Implement friction for accounts identified as minors—e.g., prompts about why commenting is valuable, reminders about privacy, or default comment filters. - Media literacy initiatives: Schools, parents, and platforms should collaborate on curriculum modules that teach young people to recognize manipulation tactics and set healthy social media habits.

Challenge 5: Regulatory Lag Policy often trails platform innovation. Engagement hacking evolves faster than law.

Solution: - Proactive policy frameworks: Regulators should move beyond reactive enforcement and design outcome-based rules that focus on user harms (manipulation, deceptive advertising, addictive patterns). - Industry standards and self-regulation: Industry consortia can create frameworks to define and prohibit manipulative engagement tactics, coupled with certification programs for compliant creators and agencies.

Implementing these solutions requires political will, technical investment, and cultural change. But they are feasible—platforms have adjusted ranking signals in the past for safety reasons, and regulators have precedent for intervening in deceptive advertising and dark patterns.

Future Outlook

What happens next depends on incentives. For the foreseeable future, platforms that monetize attention will continue to prioritize metrics that drive ad revenue. TikTok’s economic engine is powerful: The platform’s massive user base (1.6 billion MAUs; 1.2 billion DAUs) and advertising reach (1.59 billion people) mean that short-term engagement hacks yield clear returns. Unless the incentives change, expect more formats like “Guess” to emerge.

Short-term trajectory (next 6–12 months) - Trend proliferation: Expect copycats and iterations—“Guess 2.0,” interactive polls disguised as guessing games, or hybrid formats combining giveaways with guessing mechanics. - Brand co-option: More brands will adopt the format, sometimes with disclosure, sometimes without. Marketers will push the envelope, especially during product launches. - Platform tweaks: If manipulation generates public outcry or harms, platforms may institute quick fixes—comment rate limits, pattern suppression, or algorithmic downgrading of certain engagement spikes.

Mid-term trajectory (1–3 years) - Regulatory attention intensifies: With regulators already scrutinizing dark patterns and transparency, agencies like the FTC are likely to extend investigations to engagement-driven manipulation, particularly when it targets minors or masks advertising. - Platform accountability: Platforms may be forced to adopt accountability mechanisms—auditable ranking signals, external research access, and clearer ad disclosure rules. - Creator economy pivot: Savvier creators will pivot to formats that build retention and monetization without burning trust. Long-term brand value will reward authenticity over repeated short-term hacks.

Long-term trajectory (3+ years) - Norms and literacy improve: As public understanding of attention manipulation grows, audiences will become more discerning. New norms will favor creators and brands that disclose intent and deliver genuine value. - Technical defense mechanisms: Advances in AI will help platforms detect manipulative coordination at scale, but those same tools will be used by bad actors, so it will be an arms race. - Structural reform: If harms compound—mental health impacts, political manipulation, or deceptive advertising—broader policy reforms could reshape platform incentives, potentially decoupling ad revenue from raw attention metrics.

The key question is whether stakeholders will act strategically or only after significant harm accumulates. The “Guess” trend is a test case—small now, but emblematic of how culture, psychology, and algorithms can combine to produce large-scale behavioral engineering.

Conclusion

The TikTok “Guess” trend looks like bratty summer fun—music, mystery, and snappy content. But as this exposé shows, it’s also a textbook example of engagement hacking: a coordinated use of information gaps, social proof, variable rewards, and algorithmic incentives to extract attention. Originating around March 2025 and amplified across a platform with 1.6 billion monthly users, it’s not merely a meme—it’s a manipulation engine disguised in pop-culture aesthetics.

The economics are stark. TikTok’s ad reach (1.59 billion people) and revenue (about $23 billion in 2024) create incentives for any technique that grows engagement. Brands and creators will keep iterating on a format that delivers measurable metrics unless platforms, regulators, and audiences demand something different. Fortunately, solutions exist: algorithmic recalibration, better disclosure rules, media literacy for youth, and new industry norms that value long-term trust over immediate virality.

Action matters. If you’re a creator, use the format sparingly and ethically—turn curiosity into community, not just comment inflation. If you’re a brand, disclose and design for value. If you’re a parent or educator, teach kids how these loops work. If you’re a platform or regulator, consider how current incentive structures reward manipulation and what changes could steer the ecosystem toward healthier engagement.

The “Guess” trend is a lens: one viral format that reveals a broader reality about social media today. Understanding it is the first step toward reclaiming attention as a shared human good, not merely a monetizable resource. Below are concrete takeaways you can put to use now.

Actionable takeaways

- For users: Pause before you comment—ask who benefits when you engage. Turn off auto-play when you need a break, and set daily limits. - For creators: Use “Guess” as storytelling, not clickbait. Offer clear value or rewards for participation and disclose brand partnerships. - For brands: Avoid stealth campaigns. Label promotions clearly and align engagement tactics with long-term brand trust. - For parents/educators: Teach attention economy literacy—explain information gaps, social proof, and reinforcement loops to teens. - For platforms: Recalibrate ranking signals to value meaningful conversations over repetitive comments; implement pattern detection to flag engineered comment storms. - For regulators: Draft guidelines for disclosure of engagement-driven promotional formats and expand oversight of dark patterns aimed at underage users.

Call to action: Raise the conversation—share this exposé with a creator, a brand marketer, or a parent. The more people recognize these dynamics, the harder it becomes for manipulation to masquerade as “brat summer” vibes.