The Great Haul Recession: How Tariffs Just Killed TikTok's $5 Shopping Spree Era

Introduction

If you’ve spent time on TikTok in the last few years, you know the drill: fifteen-second clout clips, haul videos that feel like unboxing therapy, and creators who turn a $5 find into a viral moment. “Shein haul” and “Temu haul” were practically subgenres of their own—endless slideshows of cheap fits and mood-boarding that made fast fashion feel like a personal treasure hunt. But lately the narrative has shifted. Headlines and DMs have been full of one gloomy phrase: “haul recession.” People blame everything from supply-chain fatigue to shifting aesthetics. More dramatically, some have pointed to tariffs or new trade rules as the final nail in the coffin of the $5 shopping spree era.

Here’s the thing: the story is more complicated than “tariffs killed TikTok shopping.” TikTok Shop and social commerce have been booming in many measurable ways—$9 billion in U.S. GMV in the first year, monthly U.S. sales consistently above $1 billion since mid-2024, a $100 million Black Friday 2024 haul, and a global GMV projection of $30 billion for 2025. But that growth coexists with very real shifts: changing consumer values, regulatory pressure, rising attention to sustainability, and the natural lifecycle of trends. For Gen Z—who shaped haul culture—this moment is less about a single death and more about a pivot.

This article is a trend analysis aimed at Gen Z: we’ll unpack the myth of a tariff-driven “Great Haul Recession,” lay out the real drivers behind the shifting haul economy, analyze the interplay between TikTok Shop, Shein, Temu and fast fashion, and offer practical takeaways for creators, shoppers, and small brands navigating the next wave. Expect data, context, and a candid look at what’s actually happening when virality meets regulation, sustainability, and the fickle moodboard of youth culture.

Understanding the “Great Haul Recession” (the reality behind the headline)

The phrase “Great Haul Recession” makes for a compelling headline: it conjures images of empty shopping carts, vanishing $5 fits, and creators lamenting their lost economy. But when you dig into the numbers, TikTok Shop isn’t imploding. In fact, the platform recorded $9 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) within its first year in the U.S., with over 398,000 active stores. After mid-2024 the platform reported monthly U.S. sales above $1 billion, and a standout moment came on Black Friday 2024 when TikTok Shop clocked $100 million in U.S. sales—triple its 2023 Black Friday results. Projections put global GMV at about $30 billion for 2025 and anticipate nearly 200% U.S. growth that same year.

So if the platform is booming, why the talk of a “haul recession”? The short answer: the cheap-haul era has been squeezed by a set of real but varied forces—none of which is simply “tariffs.” Here’s what to keep in mind:

- Fast fashion demand isn’t gone. TikTok shoppers buy fast-fashion apparel at higher rates than average consumers: 11% of TikTok Shop customers purchased fast-fashion apparel in a 12-month period versus 7% among average shoppers. That shows ongoing appetite for low-cost trend-driven clothing. - Market overlap is heavy. TikTok shoppers overlap significantly with discount retailers like Shein and Temu. The haul formats—unboxings, size tests, before-and-after fits—translate perfectly to these platforms. - Platform-driven virality still works. Brands and product categories continue to blow up: Stanley tumblers, for instance, grew from $73 million to $750 million in revenue after TikTok-driven hype. Viral moments still generate massive purchase surges. - But trend lifespans are shortening. TikTok accelerates trend cycles. What used to take months or seasons now happens in weeks—and that speed reduces the longevity of haul narratives. One viral haul can be huge, but the next one often arrives right after.

Regulations, geopolitical noise, and trade policies (including tariff talk) have been floated as potential disruptors. The most direct regulatory risk in recent headlines wasn’t tariffs; it was a possible TikTok ban tied to national security discussions—political action that, if enacted, could obviously harm the shopping ecosystem. That ban had been projected to possibly take effect by January 19, 2025, adding a layer of uncertainty not tied to pricing but to platform access.

In the UK and other markets, TikTok Shop has even been named the fastest-growing online retailer in 2024, and micro-trends like POP MART’s Labubu collectibles got insane traction—1.1 billion video views and an 819% orders spike in a single promotional period (March 1–May 29, 2025). Meanwhile, secondhand fashion—boosted by sustainability awareness and social platforms—was projected to hit $227 billion by 2025, showing an appetite for alternatives to brand-new cheap goods.

So the “Great Haul Recession” is partly a narrative created by visible changes in what creators highlight and what shoppers prioritize. Tariffs are a story element, but not the whole plot. The ecosystem is evolving: growth in overall commerce, faster trend turnover, alternative shopping channels (resale, thrift), and regulatory noise are all reshaping haul culture.

Key Components and Analysis

Let’s unpack the pieces that make up the current haul landscape—platform mechanics, consumer behavior, market players, and macro forces—and analyze how they interact.

Platform mechanics: discovery, entertainment, checkout

- TikTok isn’t just a feed; it’s a discovery machine with native commerce hooks. Shoppable videos, live shopping, and in-app checkout compress inspiration-to-purchase time. That’s a key reason TikTok Shop hit $9 billion in U.S. GMV so fast. These features favor impulse buys and low-cost trends, reinforcing haul formats. - Live commerce and creator-driven storefronts amplify scarcity and FOMO. When a creator demos a $5 dress live and links the purchase, the friction is minimal.

Consumer behavior: Gen Z tastes and attention cycles

- Gen Z’s shopping is both values-driven and trend-hungry. They want affordability and aesthetics, but they’re also more likely than previous cohorts to care about sustainability, authenticity, and secondhand options. - The data shows higher fast-fashion purchase rates among TikTok shoppers (11% vs. 7%), indicating that while sustainability conversations are rising, low-cost trend purchases remain relevant—especially where discoverability and entertainment align.

Market players: Shein, Temu, the long tail of sellers

- Discount marketplaces like Shein and Temu benefited from tidal waves of haul content because their price points matched viral curiosity. Hauls turn brand unfamiliarity into a low-risk trial: “If it’s only $5, I’ll test it.” - TikTok’s marketplace model, with hundreds of thousands of sellers, makes it feasible for small merchants to go viral overnight.

Macro forces: regulation, tariffs, and sustainability

- Tariffs can raise costs for imported goods, and some regions have tightened trade rules or raised duties on certain categories. That can chip away at the razor-thin margins of ultra-cheap imports and influence retail pricing. - More impactful in some markets is regulatory scrutiny of TikTok itself. The prospect of a ban introduces existential risk: if users can’t access the app, the entire haul economy falters—regardless of tariffs. - Sustainability and secondhand markets (projected at $227B by 2025) are crowding attention. Creators who once chronicled mass cheap hauls pivot to thrift flips and vintage styling, signaling cultural shifts.

Trend economics: virality vs sustainability

- Viral hits still create explosive revenue. The Stanley tumbler story (from $73M to $750M) shows the power of social momentum. But virality is volatile: one hit doesn’t create a stable business if inventory and operations can’t scale or if the trend moves on. - Hauls served as both entertainment and product testing. As the novelty wear-off arrives and consumers become more geneous about quality and sustainability, the format evolves.

Analysis summary: - TikTok Shop’s numbers show expansion, not collapse. But the character of haul culture is changing: fewer $5 gimmicks dominating feeds, more curated thrift content, more secondhand commerce, and heightened regulatory risk. - Tariffs could raise prices and change the calculus for micro-sellers who rely on razor-thin margins—but they’re only one factor among many shifting incentives and behaviors. - The real story for Gen Z is a pivot from abundant impulse testing to a mixture of conscious consumption and targeted viral buys.

Practical Applications

For creators, shoppers, and indie brands, the shifting haul landscape isn’t just theory—it requires concrete adjustments. Here’s how different players can adapt and thrive.

For creators (short-form, long-term relevance) - Diversify content beyond pure unboxings. Mix thrift flips, quality tests, and durability reviews with traditional hauls. Audience trust grows when you show what lasts. - Partner with brands that value fulfillment and transparency. If a brand’s shipping and returns are a mess, that harms your credibility. - Use live shopping strategically. Livestreams convert viewers into buyers faster than static posts—but plan product buffers, sizing guides, and clear expectations to avoid backlash when items don’t meet the hype.

For shoppers (smart buying in a noisy market) - Practice “haul hygiene”: order one test item from an unfamiliar seller before committing to bulk buys. Viral doesn’t equal reliable. - Lean into secondhand options. With resale projected to grow massively, you can get trend looks at lower environmental cost and often with unique pieces that last. - Know the return policy. Low-cost items can turn expensive if returns are impossible or shipping back is pricey.

For independent brands and small sellers - Invest in product quality and storytelling. If tariffs or higher cost structures compress margins, differentiate by making items worth re-wearing and talking about. - Use TikTok for discovery but diversify channels. Build email lists, Shopify stores, and multiple platform presences to hedge against platform risk. - Embrace creator partnerships that demonstrate quality, not just price. When creators test durability and fit, conversions are more sustainable than impulse clicks.

For marketplaces and larger brands - Optimize supply chain transparency. As consumers ask more about sourcing, clear communication about origin, tariffs impact, and sustainability helps maintain trust. - Consider hybrid strategies: limited low-price drops for discovery plus higher-quality staples for lifetime value.

Actionable checklist (quick): - If you’re a creator: schedule at least one thrift/thrift-flip video per month to diversify your content mix. - If you’re a shopper: adopt a one-test-item rule for unknown sellers; prioritize returnable items. - If you’re a brand: build a 90-day fulfillment buffer and invest in post-purchase experience to maintain loyalty through viral spikes.

Challenges and Solutions

Every shift has winners and losers. Here are the core challenges posed by this transition—and practical solutions to mitigate them.

Challenge 1: Tariff pressure and higher landed costs - Problem: Tariffs or changing trade policies can increase import costs for ultra-cheap goods, making $5 items less feasible for sellers and reducing impulse buys. - Solution: Rework product assortments—introduce slightly higher-priced “hero” items with better margins and durable appeal. Explore nearshoring for some SKUs to reduce import exposure. Communicate changes transparently to your audience: honesty reduces backlash.

Challenge 2: Regulatory uncertainty (platform bans, tighter rules) - Problem: Political pressure on platforms like TikTok can disrupt access overnight, removing discoverability channels for creators and sellers. - Solution: Build omnichannel presence. Repurpose video content for Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, and other platforms. Maintain owned audiences (email list, SMS) so you aren’t platform-hostage. Prepare contingency promotional plans.

Challenge 3: Shortening trend lifespans and audience fatigue - Problem: Fast virality increases churn; creators and sellers must constantly find new hits to stay relevant. - Solution: Invest in evergreen content and products. Produce “how to style” and “care and repair” content that remains useful beyond one trend cycle. Brands should balance viral product launches with evergreen lines that sustain revenue.

Challenge 4: Sustainability backlash and reputational risk - Problem: Fast fashion’s environmental footprint is attracting scrutiny; creators who promote low-quality disposables risk reputation damage. - Solution: Promote repair, styling longevity, and resale. Brands can offer recycling or buy-back programs; creators can spotlight sustainable shopping decisions. This offers a way to keep engagement while aligning with Gen Z values.

Challenge 5: Scalability and fulfillment under viral pressure - Problem: A viral hit can overwhelm fulfillment and lead to stockouts, delayed shipping, and customer complaints. - Solution: Plan for viral demand with contingencies: pre-vetting suppliers for scale, offering limited early releases, and clear communication on shipping timelines. Use “limited drop” language to manage expectations rather than overpromising.

Across these challenges, the recurring theme is preparation and transparency. The audience hates being misled; they reward creators and brands that set realistic expectations and deliver quality.

Future Outlook

Predicting culture is never exact, but we can map plausible trajectories for the haul economy and social commerce over the next 12–36 months.

Continued growth in social commerce, with more sophistication

- Even with headline risks, projections showed TikTok Shop scaling toward $30 billion GMV globally by 2025 and expecting significant U.S. growth. The basic format—short-form discovery + embedded commerce—will persist and refine. Expect richer shopping features, improved buy flows, and better data-driven targeting.

Bigger role for secondhand and circular trends

- Secondhand fashion was projected to reach $227 billion by 2025. As sustainability discourse grows, more creators will center thrift and vintage content, making curated secondhand a mainstream haul alternative. This changes the haul narrative from “mass cheap buying” to “curated finds.”

Higher expectations for product quality and transparency

- As customers mature in their buying, haul videos will increasingly foreground quality checks, fit tests, and repairability. Brands that lean into durability and clear supply-chain storytelling will find loyal niches.

Multi-platform creator economies

- Creators will spread bets across platforms. A viral product will still be amplified on TikTok, but discovery will feed into Instagram, YouTube, and commerce-enabled experiences elsewhere. Platform flexibility will be a survival skill.

Regional differences and tariff-sensitive categories

- Tariff impacts will be uneven. Some categories reliant on low-margin imports (novelty accessories, certain apparel) may see price rises or category shifts. Brands will explore nearshoring, consolidated SKUs, or quality upgrades to maintain margins. Tariff narratives will influence supplier decisions but won’t alone end social commerce.

A more discerning Gen Z

- Gen Z’s tastes continually evolve: they crave novelty but increasingly pair that craving with values. Expect hybrid content—hauls that are both entertaining and informative, celebrating thrifted gems or ethically made pieces alongside occasional viral cheap finds.

In short: the “era” of $5 hauls isn’t neatly dead; it’s morphing. Social commerce will still deliver explosive hits, but the ecosystem will reward those who balance discovery with durability, transparency, and multi-channel resilience.

Conclusion

The “Great Haul Recession” makes a neat headline, but it oversimplifies what’s really unfolding. TikTok Shop’s raw numbers—$9 billion GMV in the U.S. first year, sustained monthly sales north of $1 billion since mid-2024, and a projected $30 billion global GMV in 2025—understandably complicate any narrative about a wholesale collapse. At the same time, the haul culture that thrived on $5 impulse purchases is undeniably changing. Tariffs can nudge prices upward and cut margins for cheap imports, but they’re only a single variable in a larger equation that includes regulatory uncertainty (such as potential platform bans), sustainability shifts (a booming secondhand market projected at $227 billion), and the accelerating life cycle of trends.

For Gen Z, the takeaway is pragmatic optimism. Social commerce and the thrill of discovery are not going anywhere—what’s changing is the format and the reasons you buy. Haul videos are evolving into more curated, quality-conscious content that still satisfies dopamine loops but with an eye toward value beyond the immediate fit. For creators and brands, adaptation is simple in principle but challenging in practice: diversify channels, prioritize transparency, and balance viral drops with products that build long-term trust.

If you miss the $5 spree era, you’re not alone—but remember that every cultural pivot opens new creative space. The next viral haul might be a thrift flip, a sustainably made bestseller, or a durable staple that gets styled ten different ways. The platform will keep serving moments; it’s our job to decide which ones we let stick around.

Actionable takeaways (recap) - Creators: diversify your content mix; include thrift and quality checks. - Shoppers: use a one-test-item rule and prioritize returnable items; consider secondhand. - Brands: prepare for tariffs by adjusting assortments, nearshoring where possible, and investing in fulfillment and transparency. - Everyone: build across platforms and own your audience to hedge against sudden policy shifts.

Haul culture isn’t dead—it's becoming smarter, faster, and pickier. For a generation that’s defining itself by both style and values, that might be exactly the evolution we needed.